Existing Conditions Model Documentation

Eglinton Avenue West LRT Corridor

Multi-Modal Traffic Analysis – Existing Conditions Model Documentation

Note: For the full version of this document, please email eglintonwestlrt@toronto.ca

Executive Summary

AECOM has been retained as part of the Eglinton West Light Rail Transit (EWLRT) Work Program to optimize and refine the approved 2010 EA LRT design concept. The City of Toronto, City Planning Division has identified the need for a comprehensive multi-modal simulation model to support the refinement of the LRT design and analyze operations including travel times along the LRT corridor, traffic infiltration and diversion, impacts on surrounding highway networks and interchanges, and other traffic analysis work. The study scope includes the development, calibration, and validation of a microsimulation traffic model using AIMSUN Next version 8.2.3 software for the AM and PM weekday peak hours. The purpose of this report is to provide documentation on the Existing Conditions (2018) AIMSUN model development, including model calibration and validation results.

The primary modelled study area consists of the Eglinton Avenue West LRT corridor between Keele Street and Commerce Boulevard, the future LRT extension to Toronto Pearson International Airport, and the Highway 401/427/27 interchange to the west of the Eglinton Avenue West/Martin Grove Road intersection. The model for the primary study area simulates the interactions between pedestrians, local transit, and vehicles (auto and truck). A secondary model study area was used to assess the effects of traffic diversion and infiltration on a broader road network in future scenarios.

The Existing Conditions AM and PM peak hour travel demands used in the AIMSUN modelling were extracted from the City’s GTAModel v4 travel demand model for the 2011 horizon year. For the purposes of microsimulation, Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) within the GTAModel v4 were disaggregated to better reflect the land use and existing (2018) road network that would be represented in the AIMSUN model. The disaggregated TAZs were used to develop the centroid configuration that would be modelled within AIMSUN.

Calibration of the AIMSUN microsimulation AM and PM peak hour models was undertaken to reflect existing 2018 operating conditions in the study area. The data used in the calibration process included sectional travel times on arterial roads and highways, observed turning movement counts, and visual audits conducted for link speeds and observed queues. As part of the calibration process, the base travel demand matrices from the GTAModel v4 were processed using the static O-D adjustment procedure in AIMSUN to better align with the observed traffic counts at the turning movement level along arterial roads and at ramps and mainline sections along highways. The final adjusted matrices were then used in the microsimulation, which employs ‘Dynamic User Equilibrium’ (DUE) methodology. This process iteratively assigns partial traffic demands to the network to establish a traffic assignment.

The modelled outputs of the microsimulation DUE run were compared with observed field data for turning movement volumes and travel times. The GEH results, which are a measure of how closely modelled results match observed data, show that 63.0% of modelled turning movements in the study area during the AM peak hour, and 65.0% in the PM peak hour have a GEH less than 5. The travel time results show that 61.8% of modelled travel times in the AM peak hour and 64.7% in the PM peak hour are within 15% of observed travel times for major arterials and highway sections in the study area. For a model of this size and complexity, these statistics represent a sufficient level of calibration.

A transit travel time analysis was also conducted for local bus routes along Eglinton Avenue West within the study area limits to provide a baseline for comparison against transit travel times in future scenarios, including with the Eglinton West LRT scenario.

Considering the size and complexity of the modelled study area, this study concludes that both the AM and PM weekday peak hour AIMSUN models are calibrated and are acceptable for use in Phase Two of this assignment. In Phase Two, the calibrated Existing Conditions microsimulation model will form the basis of future work for the LRT corridor analysis and will inform recommendations from a transportation operations perspective.

Note: For the full version of this document, please email eglintonwestlrt@toronto.ca

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